Recent signals indicated that President Trump had resolved to ramp up military equipment sales to European nations, intended for transfer to Ukraine, a move aimed at benefiting the U.S. arms industry and bolstering American economic interests. Yet, he abruptly reversed course on supplying long-range missiles following a conversation with President Putin, who reportedly convinced him that such weaponry in Ukrainian hands posed an existential risk to Russia.
Despite his reputation for unpredictability, Trump recognizes the peril of empowering a desperate Ukraine to escalate the conflict to a level that would compel direct U.S. involvement—whether conventional or otherwise. In this respect, his caution echoes that of President Biden, who has historically intervened to prevent any escalation—deliberate or accidental—that could force NATO into open war. Experience within the Pentagon underpins such strategic restraint.
Meanwhile, President Zelensky is reportedly lobbying European allies with urgency, fearful of the concessions he may be pressured to accept in prospective negotiations in Budapest. It appears Trump has made clear that territorial losses will be a feature of any final settlement.
Europe today lacks the leverage to block Trump’s strategic agenda but will likely push back. Emboldened by successes in Egypt, Trump seeks to close the Ukraine dossier swiftly, requiring Russia to make formal concessions to seal the deal. What Russia might concede remains an open question.
Finally, Trump is eager to resolve both the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts ahead of his anticipated summit with President Xi Jinping, as his overarching geopolitical focus turns toward countering China’s rise. Clearing these fronts will afford Washington greater freedom to address its principal strategic competitor.
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